Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a1251116173ae2988105b6a692e08c08748a9aaf519557f3da2cefc460ee54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 9c | 6,439$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.53 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 10c | 5,027$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.73 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 9c | 2,425$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.22 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 6c | 1,972$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under | 7c | 1,818$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 25c | 676.32$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 76c | 327$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Under | 24c | 327$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 28c | 256$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 243.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Under | 10c | 238.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 26c | 142.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 27c | 105.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 13c | 87.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Under | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 27c | 69.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 64.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 75c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 75c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 75c | 19.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.