Mls · resolved market
Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6a098a7447380985b9f28a25933a9320904106d2d22363168a1252283317a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orlando City SCof Orlando City SC, San Jose Earthquakes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Orlando City SC | 61c | 3,577$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.26 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Jose Earthquakes | 14c | 1,855$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.57 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Jose Earthquakes | 38c | 1,841$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.87 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Orlando City SC | 59c | 1,723$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.84 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 43c | 1,114$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.52 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Orlando City SC | 3c | 648.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.74 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 600.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.26 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Orlando City SC | 60c | 502.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.82 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Orlando City SC | 3c | 419.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.79 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Orlando City SC | 69c | 343.26$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Orlando City SC | 72c | 341.47$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Orlando City SC | 68c | 337.86$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Orlando City SC | 48c | 298.6$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 296.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed San Jose Earthquakes | 76c | 261.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 235.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Orlando City SC | 60c | 217.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Orlando City SC | 56c | 178.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Orlando City SC | 63c | 144.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Orlando City SC | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…a9acbacked Orlando City SC | 25c | 74.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Orlando City SC | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 51.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Orlando City SC | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Orlando City SC | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed San Jose Earthquakes | 47c | 37.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 37c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Orlando City SC | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked San Jose Earthquakes | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.