Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71cd03f04f1afa1994b3cd504a2fb93eec9950a2b57d7b0d550c8eb571ed9f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orlando City SCof San Jose Earthquakes, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed Orlando City SC | 64c | 17,362$11,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250.39 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 57cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 6,760$2,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.76 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 5,155$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.71 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 29c | 1,635$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.17 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed San Jose Earthquakes | 37c | 1,451$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.93 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 1,035$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.65 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 37c | 1,035$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 1,013$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.81 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Orlando City SC | 62c | 946.9$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.29 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose Earthquakes | 37c | 859.3$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Orlando City SC | 63c | 733.3$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.32 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed San Jose Earthquakes | 38c | 661.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Orlando City SC | 62c | 499.46$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.79 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 421.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Orlando City SC | 60c | 325.13$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Orlando City SC | 66c | 295.29$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed San Jose Earthquakes | 28c | 198.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Orlando City SC | 74c | 166.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Orlando City SC | 59c | 133.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Orlando City SC | 63c | 102.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 36c | 100.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Orlando City SC | 63c | 100.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…30d8backed San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Orlando City SC | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 37c | 77.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Orlando City SC | 65c | 62.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Orlando City SC | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 37c | 56.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…ce26backed San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 35c | 45.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Orlando City SC | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Orlando City SC | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e5afbacked Orlando City SC | 60c | 32.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…e22fbacked Orlando City SC | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed San Jose Earthquakes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Orlando City SC | 70c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…cd8abacked Orlando City SC | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Orlando City SC | 61c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Orlando City SC | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Orlando City SC | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…0f25backed Orlando City SC | 64c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Orlando City SC | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.