TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cbe…1f4ebacked Over56c42,533$23,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,818.242365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04d5…66d8backed Over53c37,795$19,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,864.264261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c16,112$7,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,181.763,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under38c13,436$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,066.998945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under46c10,355$4,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,726.641450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under43c4,598$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007949.4%39 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Under47c4,235$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.391546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under44c3,806$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.9413347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c3,172$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.971,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under44c3,078$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.8168150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c3,025$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.7899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under47c2,702$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.946250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under44c2,500$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.772850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under45c2,500$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.570249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over79c2,073$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.3422841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over63c1,937$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.3471443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under38c1,674$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.551,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Under47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7053438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Under21c1,406$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.634348.8%21 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under48c1,136$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.1455750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under48c1,136$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.1468550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under48c1,111$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.6791553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under45c1,004$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.2412650.8%64 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49053046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under38c826.53$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.331,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8400…274cbacked Over64c780.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under47c766.74$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.3727047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under47c750$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.54751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Under43c664.35$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.673033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over70c659$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.9512667.5%85 W · 41 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under27c632.57$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0647240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked Over64c582.52$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.914657.5%84 W · 62 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under44c526.11$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.493046.7%14 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under47c520.3$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.581,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over51c499.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2456124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Over68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under45c404$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.134528.9%13 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over68c393$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.635247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over70c384.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2136646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under45c375.94$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9711848.3%57 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…c830backed Over69c362$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2219960.8%121 W · 78 L+22.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x404c…5c87backed Over69c362$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2220660.7%125 W · 81 L+19.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdff2…2e27backed Over69c362$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2216856%94 W · 74 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under44c346$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2418456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Under26c315.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.012352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under33c294.07$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0424046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under46c265.38$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.256558.5%38 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under47c262.25$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.268652.3%45 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under44c256.6$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.978454.8%46 W · 38 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over64c239.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.310042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Under44c220.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.163953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+70.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under47c186$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4213948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over69c184.89$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3123953.6%128 W · 111 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked Under45c182.14$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.95954.2%32 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3968…85b5backed Over65c177$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.243253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under47c175.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.337659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1743…3d6fbacked Over57c170$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under42c157.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.682044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed Under49c155.1$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over52c153.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.854323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-46.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over69c153.7$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8544447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under47c153.19$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under44c149.79$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9133346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over57c149.12$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.126250%31 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under45c138$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.152923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over69c132.25$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419070%63 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under30c129.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0992346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under28c126$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2825851.2%132 W · 126 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under31c125.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1480249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Under29c124.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.654447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over70c123$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.987154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under45c122.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.259052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over61c121.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9896756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.636247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under48c120$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4535149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Over54c114$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4414549.7%72 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787b…f0a6backed Under44c110.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under44c110.37$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5914957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over73c100.59$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1653040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Over53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64d9…37f9backed Over80c98.85$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over52c97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.562751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over59c95$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under34c94.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Over55c84$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.820252%105 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under47c77.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4926450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under47c74.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1611650.9%59 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc464…5139backed Over69c71.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.011650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over72c70.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.141,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under30c70.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.244350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Under45c61.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8513259.1%78 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Under46c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.314349%70 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013844.9%62 W · 76 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7631446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Under44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x072f…17c6backed Over57c48.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under30c47.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4130735.2%108 W · 199 L-32.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85326.4%14 W · 39 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under44c44.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6523350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.