TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,037 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd5e…9040backed Over52c1,634$850 inWon+$784.3232848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under11c1,379$158 inLost-$158.191,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c1,205$578 inLost-$578.431,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Under37c550$202 inLost-$202.071637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under48c515.81$250 inLost-$249.9891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…3e18backed Under23c242.03$55 inLost-$55.17837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.088853.4%47 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over72c175.14$126 inWon+$49.5936247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over72c175$126 inWon+$4919847.5%94 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over62c152$94 inWon+$57.761,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over65c126.84$82 inWon+$44.6853040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under48c100$48 inLost-$4817751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over78c100$78 inWon+$2213844.9%62 W · 76 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under31c98.63$31 inLost-$30.5871443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over65c96.14$63 inWon+$33.4480249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over70c94.8$66 inWon+$28.5244350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over76c70.19$53 inWon+$16.851,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Over70c42.86$30 inWon+$12.862657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under49c42$20 inLost-$20.3726150.2%131 W · 130 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over50c41.13$21 inWon+$20.3873438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over80c39.01$31 inWon+$7.889070%63 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over56c35.71$20 inWon+$15.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under49c30.61$15 inLost-$1580358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.