Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8350fab0178458712d963a97a27062352c1b0024d207b26d597020fc4136a6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 8,595$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.23 | 718 | 43.5%312 W · 406 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 6,061$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.81 | 1,002 | 40.2%403 W · 599 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 21c | 4,245$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.68 | 1,888 | 36.5%690 W · 1,198 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 3,857$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.04 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…c873backed Under | 79c | 3,150$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 2,863$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.52 | 1,449 | 36.8%533 W · 916 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Under | 80c | 1,881$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 22c | 1,667$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 13c | 1,659$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 78c | 892.18$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 450 | 47.1%212 W · 238 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 886.61$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.22 | 356 | 47.5%169 W · 187 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 77c | 721.41$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 318 | 46.5%148 W · 170 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 80c | 705.57$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 926 | 46.7%432 W · 494 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…1b9ebacked Over | 18c | 699.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 75c | 481.52$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 76c | 469.47$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 388.6$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 16c | 380.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 478 | 40.2%192 W · 286 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 20c | 295$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 18c | 293.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 682 | 50.7%346 W · 336 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 23c | 269.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 972 | 56.5%549 W · 423 L | +71.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Under | 75c | 258$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 76c | 256.29$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 75c | 228$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 244 | 26.2%64 W · 180 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Under | 71c | 182.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 179.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 79c | 150.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 805 | 49.9%402 W · 403 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 20c | 142.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 743 | 37.8%281 W · 462 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 18c | 142$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 28c | 81.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 229 | 41.5%95 W · 134 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 18c | 67.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…bf43backed Under | 70c | 61.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 18c | 61.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Over | 28c | 41.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 39.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 32c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 5.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: Orlando City SC O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.