Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Rider Broncs vs. Fairfield Stags: O/U 142.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a2432d67ef8484b528f3277587767a03f676536d2926085947d6fd0203596c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $716,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $718,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $716,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 56c | 626,194$351,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351,489.89 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 44c | 150,000$66,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,000 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 44c | 135,644$59,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,960.35 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Under | 44c | 133,337$58,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,668.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 43c | 128,091$55,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,011.59 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 57c | 26,192$14,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,902.6 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 25,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,000 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Under | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Under | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,199.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 9,000$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 44c | 6,500$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 44c | 4,996$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,797.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 53c | 4,399$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,322.91 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 44c | 3,750$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,852$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.86 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 45c | 2,240$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 56c | 2,227$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.12 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Under | 44c | 1,844$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.54 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 63c | 1,583$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 56c | 1,023$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.94 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 44c | 1,009$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.09 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Under | 47c | 686.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.92 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d1…663fbacked Under | 44c | 678.64$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.87 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 4c | 663.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 56c | 524.94$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.06 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 45c | 476.16$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.89 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 45c | 422.22$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…8282backed Under | 44c | 411$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 44c | 349.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.67 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Under | 45c | 322.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82a…cc74backed Under | 45c | 308.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Under | 45c | 277.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 243.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 44c | 238.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…e07abacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 46c | 217.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…aa17backed Under | 46c | 217.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Over | 56c | 212.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…e372backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Under | 45c | 156.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 45c | 153.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Under | 45c | 146.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Under | 45c | 143.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Under | 46c | 120.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 46c | 120.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…2ebabacked Over | 56c | 118.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…ce53backed Under | 44c | 112.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Under | 46c | 105.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 50c | 99.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…f0ccbacked Under | 44c | 92.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…fb93backed Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Under | 45c | 88.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked Under | 46c | 87.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9899…a7f5backed Under | 45c | 80.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Under | 44c | 77.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 55c | 74.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Under | 44c | 67.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Under | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…affebacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 65.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…ae58backed Under | 45c | 49.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…b1f4backed Under | 44c | 46.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…f98cbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Over | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…e11bbacked Under | 44c | 30.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf389…e45dbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cf…faaabacked Over | 55c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Under | 45c | 23.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rider Broncs vs. Fairfield Stags: O/U 142.5this page
- Rider Broncs vs. Fairfield StagsFairfield Stags won
- Spread: Fairfield Stags (-8.5)Rider Broncs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.