Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb342cf9f93d106803b621a01231f6340f637b3de22e8cc08b44abc1d3011eee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 500.63$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 430.01$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 268.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 42c | 253.66$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 50c | 179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 169.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 137.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 134.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 58c | 117.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 46c | 114.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 99.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 44c | 94.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 91.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 88.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 78.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 73.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 71.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 56c | 71.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ba…d2ffbacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 61.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 61.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…4e74backed Yes | 51c | 58.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 53.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 47c | 49.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 45.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 42c | 45.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 41.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 49c | 40.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 40.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 38.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 34.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 32.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 24.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 23.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 48c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 57c | 17.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 70c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.