Us Politics · resolved market
Trump ends taxes on tips in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb395c7f78d298ccccebfed8a07f1381150875b13fd1293013599ea82907537fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 16c | 9,567$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.71 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 15c | 4,871$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 16c | 4,178$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 29c | 2,365$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.51 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 12c | 2,018$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.38 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 29c | 1,466$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 1,353$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 754.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 15c | 640.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 73c | 530.16$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed No | 5c | 526$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked No | 11c | 475.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 6c | 466.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 30c | 463.53$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…3eebbacked No | 12c | 454.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 31c | 439.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 6c | 435.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed No | 12c | 310$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 10c | 298.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked No | 29c | 279.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 13c | 244.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 10c | 231.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed No | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed No | 35c | 216$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…2afdbacked No | 10c | 196.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 65c | 175.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc404…1af8backed Yes | 71c | 172.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 71c | 170.89$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked No | 24c | 169.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 68c | 133$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked Yes | 76c | 132.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 71c | 131.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 14c | 120.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…cb74backed No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 112.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 11c | 92.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 28c | 72.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…829ebacked No | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…00a4backed No | 29c | 51.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 76c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 76c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.