MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3bec2efd4ab2bdf28a93fd59af8132f93b441eeed66ad80c5f927c920e40f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Phillies, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Phillies | 53c | 20,058$10,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,630.54 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Guardians | 47c | 18,467$8,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,787.62 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Guardians | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Phillies | 51c | 2,907$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.47 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Phillies | 50c | 2,778$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.43 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Guardians | 50c | 2,279$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.05 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Guardians | 47c | 1,803$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.43 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Phillies | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Guardians | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Phillies | 53c | 1,487$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.97 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Phillies | 52c | 966.9$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.79 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…bfacbacked Phillies | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Phillies | 5c | 497.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Phillies | 51c | 468$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Guardians | 47c | 424.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.17 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Phillies | 6c | 422.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians | 46c | 351.59$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.86 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies | 51c | 324.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.85 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Phillies | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Phillies | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Phillies | 52c | 248.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Guardians | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Phillies | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Phillies | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Guardians | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 49c | 113.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Guardians | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…7480backed Guardians | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Phillies | 18c | 81.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Guardians | 48c | 79.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…d5d7backed Phillies | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Phillies | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Guardians | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Phillies | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Phillies | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 47c | 49.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Phillies | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Guardians | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Guardians | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Guardians | 47c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Guardians | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Guardians | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Guardians | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…c2c4backed Guardians | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Phillies | 55c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.