Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41540317fe1439eb7efcbf875194d53e69e028749d7fdd58e132a9803e6c0f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $723,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 112,017$50,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,100 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora | 56c | 30,418$16,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,535.58 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 55c | 29,976$16,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,468.74 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 25,017$11,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,527.57 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora | 55c | 20,611$11,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,275.13 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Tundra Esports | 32c | 19,928$6,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,279.9 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Aurora | 56c | 17,888$10,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,870.71 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 58c | 15,117$8,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,350.91 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Aurora | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.99 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,749.99 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports | 48c | 12,000$5,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,819.5 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked Aurora | 59c | 12,000$7,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.54 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Aurora | 57c | 10,952$6,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.13 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 10,447$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.79 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…f3b5backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 10,000$4,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,833.34 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 57c | 7,451$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.48 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 7,028$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.42 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 58c | 6,250$3,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.99 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 6,149$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.24 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed Aurora | 55c | 5,777$3,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 5,504$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.69 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…eae7backed Aurora | 54c | 5,495$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.96 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x468c…d7cabacked Aurora | 60c | 5,111$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.36 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 5,000$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.45 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 54c | 3,761$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.98 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 3,631$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 58c | 3,470$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.75 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 3,467$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.28 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…91babacked Aurora | 60c | 3,361$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.82 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 3,255$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.43 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 75c | 3,251$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.36 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora | 64c | 3,190$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.56 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Aurora | 56c | 3,180$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.73 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Tundra Esports | 31c | 3,000$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.08 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 58c | 2,982$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.52 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 54c | 2,735$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.09 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Tundra Esports | 26c | 2,650$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 2,600$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.99 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 2,499$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.11 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 2,278$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.87 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Aurora | 60c | 2,190$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.77 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…33ddbacked Tundra Esports | 41c | 1,990$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 1,913$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.94 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Tundra Esports | 45c | 1,842$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.4 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Aurora | 60c | 1,750$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Aurora | 55c | 1,693$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.85 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 1,639$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.51 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Aurora | 55c | 1,629$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 1,610$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.18 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Aurora | 58c | 1,605$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.39 | 253 | 59.3%150 W · 103 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 62c | 1,516$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.78 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Aurora | 63c | 1,515$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.23 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 1,505$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.13 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Aurora | 74c | 1,495$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.91 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 52c | 1,482$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.49 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Aurora | 57c | 1,461$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.19 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 58c | 1,279$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.48 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 1,250$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.5 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Aurora | 50c | 1,218$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Tundra Esports | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Tundra Esports | 11c | 1,042$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2c…7774backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 1,040$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 1,031$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.07 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 999.99$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.79 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 74c | 967.41$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.19 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Aurora | 65c | 909.23$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.23 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 872.69$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.8 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Aurora | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Tundra Esports | 23c | 833.16$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Aurora | 57c | 830.59$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Aurora | 55c | 816.23$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.85 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Aurora | 55c | 793$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.3 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Aurora | 64c | 780.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.26 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 764.61$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.45 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…1490backed Aurora | 79c | 761.53$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.53 | 55 | 78.2%43 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Tundra Esports | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 55c | 740$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Aurora | 52c | 738.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 703.05$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.21 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports | 38c | 702.81$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.32 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Aurora | 58c | 700$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 56c | 699.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 683.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Aurora | 58c | 631.28$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.28 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Aurora | 58c | 604.14$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Tundra Esports | 46c | 584.04$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.14 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Aurora | 50c | 583.64$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.82 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Aurora | 69c | 577.51$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Aurora | 58c | 556.71$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.16 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Aurora | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 51c | 551.34$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.93 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora | 55c | 549.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora | 53c | 509.35$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.09 | 249 | 47.8%119 W · 130 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Tundra Esports | 42c | 505$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Tundra Esports | 37c | 500$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Tundra Esports | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.