TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

James Harden: Points O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,885 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No58c2,319$1,347 inWon+$971.8826069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b5…4388backed Yes30c1,343$404 inLost-$404.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No73c1,200$872 inWon+$327.4965762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5040…fd94backed Yes34c655.88$223 inLost-$223520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd84b…67bebacked Yes29c631.03$183 inLost-$1831050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No66c575.83$379 inWon+$196.46361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes50c487.49$245 inLost-$244.71,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa319…bbfbbacked Yes34c413.49$140 inLost-$140.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa7…eb68backed Yes52c384.83$200 inLost-$2008145.7%37 W · 44 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ff…24e3backed Yes27c372.12$102 inLost-$1022937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c326.75$157 inWon+$169.9190863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4ad…5914backed Yes27c306.67$82 inLost-$8250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f36…86e4backed Yes35c114.29$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked No49c112.73$55 inWon+$57.636669.7%46 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No48c99.98$48 inWon+$51.4995260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No48c46.86$22 inWon+$24.371,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Yes54c40$21 inLost-$21.4483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No75c14.15$11 inWon+$3.5122774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.