TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,234 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bucks48c6,047$2,903 inWon+$3,144.4124252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers51c2,186$1,106 inLost-$1,105.922,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers52c2,119$1,102 inLost-$1,101.881,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Cavaliers52c2,097$1,091 inLost-$1,091.451354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers52c1,801$937 inLost-$936.522,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks48c1,721$835 inWon+$886.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Cavaliers53c756.59$404 inLost-$404.4741227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Bucks51c500$255 inWon+$24523644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Bucks46c495$229 inWon+$266.351,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e3…2e82backed Cavaliers53c472.47$250 inLost-$2503345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bucks47c418.99$197 inWon+$222.0659347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks47c142.1$67 inWon+$75.312,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Cavaliers53c98.11$52 inLost-$529545.3%43 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Cavaliers58c86.21$50 inLost-$5095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks48c76.67$37 inWon+$39.698,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Bucks49c65$32 inWon+$33.1538252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks47c64.43$30 inWon+$34.156,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed Cavaliers53c56.6$30 inLost-$3014040%56 W · 84 L-13.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Bucks47c56.23$26 inWon+$29.816052.5%84 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed Cavaliers52c50$26 inLost-$268264.6%53 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks47c29.76$14 inWon+$15.773,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Cavaliers52c27.02$14 inLost-$14.051,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Bucks47c25.26$12 inWon+$13.391,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Cavaliers52c20.4$11 inLost-$10.6162844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.