NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32051a87dc92f539e405c6c6aaa25d3e59acca9eb123ded6448960888ce5787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Cavaliers | 43c | 7,245$3,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.93 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 6,507$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.76 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Bucks | 50c | 4,307$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.55 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b3…a5a4backed Cavaliers | 49c | 4,102$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Bucks | 53c | 4,000$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.12 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 60c | 3,729$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.23 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3280…ea74backed Bucks | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -11.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…d939backed Bucks | 55c | 3,275$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.17 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 57c | 1,912$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 1,357$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 57c | 1,118$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Bucks | 57c | 930.99$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.08 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 778.37$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.03 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae9…0801backed Bucks | 54c | 648.31$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 53c | 573.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.82 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 424.4$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Cavaliers | 46c | 421$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks | 52c | 415.58$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 57c | 361$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 258.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Bucks | 52c | 250$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Cavaliers | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Cavaliers | 42c | 209.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Bucks | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Bucks | 68c | 165.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Bucks | 54c | 164.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cavaliers | 45c | 151.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 46c | 148.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers | 44c | 146.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Bucks | 60c | 143.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Bucks | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Cavaliers | 47c | 114$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Bucks | 63c | 113.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 52c | 111.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 58c | 108.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Bucks | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Bucks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Cavaliers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Bucks | 57c | 99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Bucks | 54c | 76.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Cavaliers | 52c | 71.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 64.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks | 62c | 59.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 56.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Bucks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 36.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6b01backed Bucks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers | 44c | 32.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Bucks | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Bucks | 51c | 29.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Bucks | 57c | 26.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Bucks | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Cavaliers | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Bucks | 63c | 19.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.