NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21012f70deaf500bbdddcd232305e6923f72070dc6329231e6a55ca0f57f7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Cavaliers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers | 48c | 11,524$5,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.43 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 53c | 5,691$3,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed Bucks | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.04 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 4,975$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.95 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Bucks | 52c | 4,537$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.87 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 50c | 4,397$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.65 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 48c | 4,227$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Cavaliers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…d35fbacked Bucks | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…d939backed Bucks | 51c | 3,529$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Cavaliers | 47c | 3,185$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.95 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Cavaliers | 48c | 3,105$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.51 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 3,000$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.52 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3280…ea74backed Bucks | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.78 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -11.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bucks | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 50c | 2,205$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.13 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…2c44backed Bucks | 51c | 1,980$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.2 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,953$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…cc0cbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 1,566$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.39 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 20c | 1,521$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Bucks | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…0999backed Cavaliers | 46c | 1,415$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.9 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers | 48c | 1,030$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.4 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Cavaliers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Bucks | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 51c | 775.85$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 695.29$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.65 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Bucks | 50c | 580.11$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.11 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks | 49c | 434.4$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Cavaliers | 52c | 426.42$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 353.37$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.55 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…3b61backed Bucks | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 49c | 313.42$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Bucks | 51c | 206.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 204.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Bucks | 50c | 201.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed Bucks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…8b6cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 55c | 150.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Cavaliers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Bucks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Cavaliers | 53c | 95.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bucks | 78c | 94.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Cavaliers | 47c | 86.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Bucks | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Bucks | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Bucks | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Cavaliers | 50c | 58.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 48c | 50.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Bucks | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cavaliers | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Bucks | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 303 | 48.2%146 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Bucks | 56c | 36.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Bucks | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Cavaliers | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bucks | 48c | 27.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Bucks | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 50c | 26.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Cavaliers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Bucks | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)this page
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.