TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9065…f632backed Over45c7,444$3,350 inWon+$4,094.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f9…dd5fbacked Under55c6,364$3,500 inLost-$3,500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…335abacked Under55c4,000$2,200 inLost-$2,20020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a09…ea5ebacked Over45c3,200$1,440 inWon+$1,7602100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ec…6429backed Under55c3,000$1,650 inLost-$1,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1673…5ba9backed Over45c2,800$1,260 inWon+$1,5402100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over43c1,800$779 inWon+$1,020.764,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c1,030$583 inLost-$583.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under56c857.85$482 inLost-$482.480737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0965…da73backed Under74c698.83$520 inLost-$519.721747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Over47c644.55$303 inWon+$341.618148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Over27c624.63$169 inWon+$455.9835843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c616.34$327 inLost-$326.749,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea9…6c85backed Under55c444.43$244 inLost-$244.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over48c417.14$202 inWon+$215.113,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e6…feb2backed Over45c363.64$164 inWon+$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Under55c345.89$190 inLost-$19026048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over47c171.97$80 inWon+$91.651,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Over41c149.99$61 inWon+$88.568645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over43c115.73$50 inWon+$65.731,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over47c114.57$54 inWon+$60.7262541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under60c99.18$60 inLost-$59.533,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Over40c97.94$39 inWon+$58.7614448.6%70 W · 74 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c0…0afebacked Over53c65$34 inWon+$30.551353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under60c62.16$37 inLost-$37.329243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over44c55.36$24 inWon+$313,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Under56c53.57$30 inLost-$307855.1%43 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Under48c51.02$24 inLost-$24.496841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Under48c51.02$24 inLost-$24.496437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under57c39.95$23 inLost-$22.7288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c9…d487backed Under40c37.5$15 inLost-$152520%5 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over60c37.5$23 inWon+$1565872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over38c35.27$13 inWon+$21.9539047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Over47c30$14 inWon+$15.954246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over45c25.31$11 inWon+$13.984,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.