NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa9727d090dff8133b9f6f6e514675cc975a3fc69071e646ff89f9a38e45c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd12c…f2d4backed Under | 50c | 4,992$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 3,548$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…c074backed Over | 48c | 2,877$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…4ff9backed Under | 52c | 2,877$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 2,535$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Under | 55c | 1,193$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.03 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 623.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.51 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 54c | 569.33$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.44 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 533.35$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.68 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 47c | 359.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.3 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 5c | 279.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 245$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 57c | 221.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 47c | 213.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 212.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 167.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Over | 40c | 158.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 49c | 113.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 107.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 100.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Over | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 80.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 59.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Over | 51c | 58.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 46c | 50.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 39c | 44.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Over | 45c | 38.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 44c | 35.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 61c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…cf66backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5this page
- Bobby Portis: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. BucksBucks won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.