TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$371,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ48c55,587$26,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,84255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Falcons48c30,974$14,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,106.2333746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons55c26,279$14,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,783.1154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.9842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons78c12,069$9,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.4234468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed MOUZ46c11,111$5,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,156.3732854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed MOUZ51c10,225$5,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.4222647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed MOUZ37c8,820$3,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,247.137143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed MOUZ35c8,406$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902.3715047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed MOUZ49c7,000$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.988242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed MOUZ24c6,693$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6232828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Team Falcons48c5,236$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.7710445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25017651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Team Falcons53c4,986$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.8214253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons53c4,445$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.2622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ54c4,135$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons51c4,000$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,971.980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ26c3,803$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.172,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Team Falcons55c3,600$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.996256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ31c3,543$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.410741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed MOUZ45c3,420$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.999345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Falcons52c3,245$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.5515946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked MOUZ23c2,862$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.3216232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked Team Falcons57c2,477$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked MOUZ45c2,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Team Falcons64c2,063$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.362161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed MOUZ49c2,051$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ45c2,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons69c1,979$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.8277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed MOUZ53c1,870$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed MOUZ43c1,790$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons59c1,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.6321264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ18c1,611$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed MOUZ52c1,479$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7695234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41cc…adc7backed Team Falcons78c1,425$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.864045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ24c1,422$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ45c1,408$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.611,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ57c1,299$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.6759250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8f…d351backed Team Falcons65c1,263$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.521457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe99b…0443backed Team Falcons57c1,255$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ45c1,105$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ38c1,097$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.641,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5b…a699backed MOUZ47c1,081$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-74.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Falcons50c1,002$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.269959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79b9…8ad7backed MOUZ1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked MOUZ50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Falcons56c980.6$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.61,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons60c967.11$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.212,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed MOUZ52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked MOUZ19c914.61$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1113732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ42c851.06$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ25c790.39$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2288166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4111…c9c6backed Team Falcons68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.29450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ45c700$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed MOUZ5c684.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44522.2%10 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed MOUZ55c680.46$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4315452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Falcons54c657.48$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6313455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked MOUZ45c650$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.516746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ30c641.39$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked Team Falcons56c600.34$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1512350.4%62 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Falcons41c590$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.19557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ25c582.54$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.871,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked MOUZ52c572.75$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.838060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb37a…1aa1backed MOUZ28c549.57$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eda…4498backed Team Falcons62c514.59$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0110562.9%66 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed MOUZ30c505.81$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6933645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed Team Falcons53c486.72$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.9340047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f5…795bbacked Team Falcons59c460.25$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.256160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ38c452.83$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons47c423.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9664149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Team Falcons57c422.81$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.816266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked MOUZ45c420$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.116735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Team Falcons54c407.82$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Team Falcons57c405.81$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8152649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked Team Falcons52c400$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7914058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Falcons51c400$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0823050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons54c396$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1629047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Team Falcons70c360$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9512061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed MOUZ28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked MOUZ53c350$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.58854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons48c348.81$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked MOUZ53c347.06$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.944072.5%29 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ44c346.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed MOUZ34c345$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.319750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b9…8267backed MOUZ58c305.21$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1774969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12973743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Team Falcons49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1536454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf60c…f540backed Team Falcons55c289.55$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.65362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked MOUZ37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ48c258.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0322954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons80c244.06$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8122654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5261…3ddbbacked MOUZ49c242.86$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons62c239.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Team Falcons33c231.73$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2615643.6%68 W · 88 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3952…c2b4backed MOUZ49c225$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.252157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e0…ac15backed Team Falcons50c225$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed MOUZ45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed MOUZ46c208.7$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610659.4%63 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.