TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$311,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,569 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ52c51,438$26,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,705.7855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons51c23,075$11,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,406.3354556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons45c15,515$7,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,461.532,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed MOUZ52c10,000$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,15022848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Falcons49c9,967$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,103.6433746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed MOUZ41c7,292$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.297143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed MOUZ44c6,000$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.528242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Team Falcons49c5,306$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,705.8118156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x818d…46b8backed MOUZ48c5,142$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed MOUZ31c4,943$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.8315047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked MOUZ54c4,667$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ54c4,596$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.5396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons48c3,730$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.2871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ11c3,638$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.5240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ23c3,451$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.2686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons46c3,060$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.2642650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Team Falcons48c2,909$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.676256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b7…189dbacked Team Falcons52c2,867$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons49c2,817$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.5845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ55c2,640$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.460349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Team Falcons48c2,497$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.2315946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c1…3049backed Team Falcons52c2,276$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ45c2,071$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.9522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons49c2,038$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.11,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e6b…b4b4backed MOUZ2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked MOUZ17c1,778$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.525829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Falcons53c1,545$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.5713455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed MOUZ57c1,515$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.162161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Team Falcons48c1,407$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.994252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ39c1,378$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.0910741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons63c1,367$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.2121264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Falcons47c1,240$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.29557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ20c1,200$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24059250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Falcons46c1,134$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.4731545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Team Falcons46c1,070$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.575234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ56c1,069$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.810334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ48c1,059$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.411,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ55c1,035$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Falcons55c1,029$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.619959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Team Falcons49c1,022$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.451145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003250%16 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed MOUZ54c899.99$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4863455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ53c801.36$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.7258744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons51c758.46$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.612,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked MOUZ53c754.72$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Team Falcons43c717.67$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.528543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons71c642.04$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5832854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked MOUZ52c579.28$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.851963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed MOUZ52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ45c549.79$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.417651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Team Falcons46c547.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.834652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed MOUZ55c543.6$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons50c530$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26534443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Falcons54c504.12$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4157455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed MOUZ46c501.67$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7760251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed Team Falcons47c468.09$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.093941%16 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed MOUZ19c461.11$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9312252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Falcons46c445.65$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.651,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7864149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f8…2667backed MOUZ54c410.33$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked MOUZ50c400.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed MOUZ52c383.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons46c371.56$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6429548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fff…d384backed MOUZ54c345.34$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1872152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eda…4498backed MOUZ53c306.62$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6210562.9%66 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ9c301.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ19c300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Falcons51c293.71$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7143647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed Team Falcons52c292.74$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.956944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c9…6b8bbacked MOUZ4c273.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310950.5%55 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked Team Falcons46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13514058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Team Falcons45c249.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.513732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f5…40d7backed Team Falcons50c249.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1244141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Team Falcons46c240.87$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.879254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ48c234.31$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8974549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Team Falcons68c230.59$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.595552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed MOUZ48c219$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1251140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed MOUZ36c215.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7723957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Team Falcons48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.339223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b0…4758backed MOUZ54c203.73$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.833956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Team Falcons49c203.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6772154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed MOUZ50c200.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0821851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed MOUZ56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.887645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149b…0ca8backed MOUZ25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-57.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed MOUZ52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10419756.9%112 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed MOUZ18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.417149.7%85 W · 86 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked MOUZ45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.993351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked MOUZ53c198.7$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.912350.4%62 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Team Falcons51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0810659.4%63 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b0e…eca9backed MOUZ56c189.04$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.864461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons55c181.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons43c170$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed MOUZ52c169$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7136051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebd…2c43backed MOUZ59c168.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed MOUZ44c163.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.919345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Team Falcons45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed MOUZ27c147$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.525648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.