MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb545db218d0a495240c07865e26f5e83dbff524e4d20e4f72348f790a83da2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 3,945$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.53 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 2,500$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.91 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 2,208$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.21 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 562.14$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 452$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 295.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 277.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 238.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 223.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 203.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 135.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 130.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 71.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 55.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 53.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 52.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 52.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 38.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…3c13backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 32.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 30.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.