Fifa International · resolved market
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb572d22ce3c3bc78a0a80e0814c9e431536c2b82d368fa6839c802bd1928fdfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 79c | 2,267$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.68 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d30…b016backed Yes | 11c | 628.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 21c | 539.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…92d2backed Yes | 20c | 509.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 78c | 506.82$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e26…8991backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 303 | 21.5%65 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 399 | 51.6%206 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Yes | 20c | 248.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…7380backed Yes | 25c | 188.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 345 | 37.1%128 W · 217 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 75c | 181.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -46.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 237 | 29.5%70 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 148.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9176backed No | 76c | 147.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 151 | 77.5%117 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 21c | 142$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03d…107ebacked Yes | 74c | 92.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…6872backed Yes | 19c | 80.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 68.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…9294backed Yes | 22c | 52.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 494 | 26.7%132 W · 362 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Yes | 23c | 51.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 228 | 24.6%56 W · 172 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 21c | 48.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 75c | 44.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ruben Vargas: 1+ goalsthis page
- Adil Boulbina: 3+ shotsNo won
- Amine Gouiri: 1+ goalsNo won
- Amine Gouiri: 2+ goalsNo won
- Amine Gouiri: 3+ shotsNo won
- Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goalsNo won
- Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goalsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Breel Embolo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goalsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ goalsYes won
- Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shotsYes won
- Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shotsNo won
- Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shotsYes won
- Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shotsYes won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ assistsYes won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 3+ goalsNo won
- Noah Okafor: 2+ goalsNo won
- Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ruben Vargas: 1+ assistsNo won
- Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goalsNo won
- Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.