TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,155 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes45c873.67$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.331,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes59c724$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.581,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes52c693.47$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed No43c640.81$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.618920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes66c483.8$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.644,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No55c420$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.62,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No44c365.63$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.531454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes56c337.31$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8246743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No44c212.85$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.181,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No44c195.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.183,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No47c187.06$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c178.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.026,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c154$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c151.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.815,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No47c149.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.844,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No41c148.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.797,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No18c144.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.824,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed Yes61c139.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.64744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes55c137.83$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c134.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.745,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No40c129.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.962,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a3…a3fabacked Yes77c129.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No40c129$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.69153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes56c114.7$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.011,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes55c111.93$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.619,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No26c105.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.742,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No40c104.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.567158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x467e…0edebacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes69c97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.443,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes62c95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.711,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes79c94.03$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.526344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes51c92.61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.381,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes48c89.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes78c88.28$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No49c85.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.692,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No20c84.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.752,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No47c83.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.219148.7%93 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c81.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes64c81.32$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes55c79.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7645253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37e…e184backed Yes60c77.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.151442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No23c77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.794,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c73.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.913,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No50c72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes60c71.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5321651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No44c68.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No43c67.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2b…dbddbacked No41c67.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c66.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked No39c66.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.635832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b6…e113backed Yes79c63.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.161464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No45c62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.962,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes68c61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.731,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes56c60.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8313551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x463b…ded3backed No41c60.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f63…5080backed No42c59.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes60c54.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2213274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes74c54.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.055358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No41c53.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0733746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes65c53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7231170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes61c52.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.736637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c52.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No28c51.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes67c51.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2318131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9777…3761backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d56…9081backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2212233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8710…f9c7backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes59c49.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.425549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffcf…67b0backed Yes59c48.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325a…0023backed No42c47.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No53c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9199571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes69c44.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.138138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes44c43.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1287629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes57c43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4927756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No32c42.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.882,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No38c42.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes60c42.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.915152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes74c40.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.436955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.164167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.243663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes56c38.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.892,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes60c37.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.916651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2547569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes55c34.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.56237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No50c33.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.953,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes60c33.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.477452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No42c33.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1426458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49c8…f565backed Yes58c32.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes60c32.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8319947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.