Music · resolved market
Will "Man's Best Friend - Sabrina Carpenter" win Best Pop Vocal Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb600148f9d9c7e1f053e48eed4fb44c2db04d2d085766b558f2aec2214bb2260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 23c | 1,963$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.28 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 78c | 1,616$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.39 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 24c | 660.47$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 18c | 551.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 22c | 438$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 75c | 278.12$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 179.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 179.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 74c | 161.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 79c | 100.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 96.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…b36abacked No | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 74c | 89.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 77c | 70.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 22c | 57.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…2e8ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…44c8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…7749backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 75c | 27.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 76c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man's Best Friend - Sabrina Carpenter" win Best Pop Vocal Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will "MAYHEM - Lady Gaga" win Best Pop Vocal Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will "SWAG - Justin Bieber" win Best Pop Vocal Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will "Something Beautiful - Miley Cyrus" win Best Pop Vocal Album at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.