Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60b792d4509a73098dec1d1dd5cee154a5871c789a0c0ba4e0459413c8d0377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,342$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 484.26$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 14c | 343.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 7c | 280.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 4c | 271.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 194.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 194.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 20c | 150.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 139.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 18c | 135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 78c | 128.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 80c | 117.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 109.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 104.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b35…f341backed Yes | 33c | 92.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 91.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 70.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e3…6651backed No | 72c | 64.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…6853backed Yes | 32c | 62.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 54.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 53.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 50.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 23c | 48.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 34c | 39.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 76c | 30.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 14.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.