Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0e9da7c201618f2595bce5be81936927fe46c157a6e1583a87b57b622396599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,530$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.44 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 1,225$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 34c | 1,077$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.57 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 950.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 830.25$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 13c | 646.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 25c | 561.26$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed No | 50c | 538.11$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 448.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.49 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 311.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 287.58$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 280.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 213.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 12c | 203.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 186.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 11c | 184$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 49c | 170.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 158.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 26c | 157.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 153.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 135.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed Yes | 79c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 18c | 134.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 58c | 130.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 19c | 116.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 45c | 115.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 16c | 114.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 12c | 112.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 21c | 106.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 59c | 105.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 20c | 98.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 80c | 83.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 42c | 75.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 28c | 71.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 21c | 70.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 28c | 65.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 65c | 60.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…dd4fbacked Yes | 34c | 59.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 21c | 47.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 45.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…cbf9backed No | 24c | 43.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 60c | 40.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 26c | 40.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 59c | 39.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 65c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 80c | 20.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 80c | 14.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5f…a191backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.