Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7464ab0ba8306cbc229f8116479f4eb2ae0bd2384b7d2cfcecd66912fc8c7c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 3c | 1,073$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 62c | 1,071$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.76 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 42c | 1,002$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.35 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed Yes | 1c | 855.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 835.55$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 35c | 755.29$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.81 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 59c | 734$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.36 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 360.9$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 291.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 223.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 205.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…44e3backed Yes | 44c | 201$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 61c | 183.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 55c | 182.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 182.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 33c | 170$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 42c | 156.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 35c | 147$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…7b03backed No | 70c | 143.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 142.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4b…2d40backed Yes | 75c | 137.81$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 79c | 135.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 134.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 131.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 39c | 127.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 44c | 112.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 33c | 109.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 42c | 102.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 101.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 52c | 100.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…7b89backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 64c | 99.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 44c | 96.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 96.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 24c | 90.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 89.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 87.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 36c | 86.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 39c | 85.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 57c | 81.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 80.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked No | 37c | 80.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 78.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 35c | 78.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 33c | 77.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 52c | 77.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed No | 32c | 77.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 76.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 65c | 75.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 48c | 70.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 42c | 69.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 66.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 64.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 54c | 61.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 61.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 32c | 61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 25c | 60.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 58.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 77c | 57.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 66c | 55.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 54.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 45c | 54.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae8…24f3backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 39c | 52.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 52.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 31c | 52.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 60c | 50.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 44c | 49.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed No | 52c | 48.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…0fe0backed No | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 47.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 47.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d76…c3b7backed Yes | 45c | 44.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 42.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 32c | 42.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.