Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc1c442a6d989e470a4ecdfc9849acb1d1feda12c07822a3eccb8acb58f014c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 3,199$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…01abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 44c | 1,407$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 1,110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 73c | 1,032$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.16 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 16c | 867.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.21 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 853.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 608.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 540.81$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.14 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 15c | 493.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 492.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 32c | 484.79$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.75 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 80c | 450$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.63 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 411.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 411.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 58c | 410$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.61 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 18c | 339.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.44 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 338.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 335.87$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…d0cfbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…34e0backed Yes | 9c | 297.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 289.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 13c | 277.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.53 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 22c | 277.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 10c | 243.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 212.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 205.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 25c | 201.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…44e3backed Yes | 19c | 201.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 198.31$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 11c | 157.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 16c | 152.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 15c | 152.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 146.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 143.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 25c | 141.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 135.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 133$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 78c | 128.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 20c | 122.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 11c | 113.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 21c | 108.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…c880backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked No | 80c | 99.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 18c | 96.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 11c | 92.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 28c | 90.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 17c | 86.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 85.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…fd43backed No | 70c | 81.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 80.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 69c | 75.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 73c | 68.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x677d…1ea0backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…443ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 19c | 58.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 17c | 57.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 32c | 56.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 55.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 52.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 20c | 50.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 46.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2454…c9f3backed Yes | 73c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 79c | 42.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 76c | 37.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 34.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…b139backed Yes | 31c | 33.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 80c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 25.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…b3abbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…e54abacked Yes | 72c | 24.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…c23cbacked No | 67c | 23.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…cfd4backed Yes | 52c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 72c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…05aabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 77c | 19.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 79c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.