Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e4f304ff33de98bb7b623b748df6bbeeb2077b1bcea9ead44bd36fa21f9760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,450$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 35c | 1,001$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.59 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 46c | 834.86$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.95 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 36c | 672.68$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.77 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 78c | 591.42$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 439.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 11c | 379.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 324.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 310.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 11c | 307$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 22c | 290.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 280.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 265.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 239.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 7c | 205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 203.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…44e3backed Yes | 27c | 201$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…6deebacked Yes | 50c | 196.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 190.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 48c | 190.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 19c | 189.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 49c | 179.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 175.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 36c | 151.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 26c | 149.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed No | 69c | 144.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 133.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 24c | 127.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 125.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 16c | 123.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 29c | 121.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 119.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…8811backed Yes | 18c | 112.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 109.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 50c | 107.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 35c | 106.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 20c | 102.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 23c | 102.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 50c | 102.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…0266backed Yes | 49c | 101.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 100.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +217%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…f7fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 14c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 26c | 96.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 13c | 91.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 88.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 41c | 88.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 80.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…e516backed Yes | 33c | 78.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 20c | 77.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 17c | 67.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 20c | 67.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 29c | 65.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 37c | 62.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 61.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 34c | 60.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…9fb8backed No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…2bbfbacked Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 46c | 58.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 52c | 56.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d76…c3b7backed Yes | 36c | 56.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked Yes | 20c | 55.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 57c | 54.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 54c | 47.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 39c | 47.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.