Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76bbb1a93f34dbbb86ba32239967f546b3d40f5aa450c21c9d657049eab8d1c

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed No	54c	15,319$8,267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,051.81	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0e…d06abacked Yes	44c	6,818$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	43c	2,291$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.29	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…4418backed Yes	44c	2,273$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	124	28.2%35 W · 89 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	54c	1,751$945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.61	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	43c	1,685$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.84	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes	43c	1,528$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.1	644	43.3%279 W · 365 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	56c	1,479$835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.91	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Yes	7c	1,389$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.38	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Yes	44c	1,116$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.98	107	43%46 W · 61 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed No	56c	1,002$561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.87	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…afc3backed Yes	61c	819.84$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed No	56c	775.2$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.09	195	45.6%89 W · 106 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	2c	769.59$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Yes	52c	769.23$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	205	47.3%97 W · 108 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No	52c	637.7$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.12	175	35.4%62 W · 113 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfde…fa1bbacked Yes	18c	600$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No	56c	516.82$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.95	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Yes	73c	500$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	211	66.4%140 W · 71 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No	56c	446$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.24	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No	56c	445.93$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.21	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc826…fcb3backed Yes	43c	409.74$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.19	116	42.2%49 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefd7…a7b1backed Yes	52c	399.76$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.39	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes	5c	316.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	47c	284.75$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.68	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No	56c	247.47$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.89	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked No	54c	244.96$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.68	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd883…714ebacked Yes	42c	237.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.96	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes	60c	206.28$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	452	48.9%221 W · 231 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f9…fa68backed No	18c	196.92$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.04	172	23.3%40 W · 132 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+28%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0919…2074backed Yes	52c	191.62$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes	20c	187.4$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes	46c	171.39$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.84	1,114	49.4%550 W · 564 L	+57.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd41…8761backed Yes	51c	160$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	300	40.3%121 W · 179 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8c…116dbacked Yes	43c	151.16$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Yes	41c	121.01$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…17c5backed No	42c	119.05$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.05	334	38.6%129 W · 205 L	-17.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55e3…b615backed Yes	43c	118.6$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	632	29.3%185 W · 447 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e43…2578backed Yes	54c	108.04$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.26	399	56.6%226 W · 173 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes	43c	104$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.72	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b5…d067backed No	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e5…f52cbacked Yes	53c	94.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	153	45.8%70 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…c80fbacked Yes	42c	89.66$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.66	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Yes	43c	86.59$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.26	782	34.3%268 W · 514 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec83…7014backed No	58c	85$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	154	47.4%73 W · 81 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd81…3874backed Yes	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	121	27.3%33 W · 88 L	-5.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked No	56c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Yes	44c	59.09$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	120	40%48 W · 72 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No	57c	59$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.37	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	45c	52.77$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.75	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0276…8454backed Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd33f…91a8backed Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	44.7%42 W · 52 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No	77c	44$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	229	59.4%136 W · 93 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f4…12dabacked Yes	72c	43.71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	77	66.2%51 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24c…412abacked No	58c	43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.06	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Yes	43c	42.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	630	35.7%225 W · 405 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed No	59c	42$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.22	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…7aaebacked No	58c	42$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked No	39c	40$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	350	34.3%120 W · 230 L	-24.0wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked No	33c	38.06$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.34	483	28%135 W · 348 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd650…bbd5backed Yes	43c	36.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	89	62.9%56 W · 33 L	+10.6wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	57c	35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Yes	46c	34.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd12e…608bbacked Yes	44c	34.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f08…cbe8backed Yes	60c	33.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81b…f35abacked Yes	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	401	45.4%182 W · 219 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb44a…51a7backed Yes	43c	27.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	307	32.9%101 W · 206 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Yes	45c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	233	55.4%129 W · 104 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ef…ddaabacked Yes	65c	23.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.7wins	-0.33per pick	61cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c01…48c8backed No	58c	22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d7…f41abacked No	58c	21.42$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	257	48.6%125 W · 132 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4145…686fbacked No	58c	21.29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.94	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f55…22b9backed No	49c	21.22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.82	166	63.9%106 W · 60 L	+20.6wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf58b…51fdbacked No	57c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.03	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3211…bcf7backed No	58c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.82	369	53.9%199 W · 170 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4490…e3babacked No	59c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	153	57.5%88 W · 65 L	+9.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+17%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83a7…bb13backed No	58c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.82	229	42.8%98 W · 131 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb3…ca8bbacked No	58c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.82	255	49%125 W · 130 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8a…20d6backed No	59c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	132	56.1%74 W · 58 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…a23dbacked No	57c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.03	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed No	57c	20.62$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	282	57.1%161 W · 121 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Yes	73c	20.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	277	67.9%188 W · 89 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b32…90bdbacked No	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	199	44.2%88 W · 111 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5abc…ec69backed No	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.35	130	60.8%79 W · 51 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa140…5531backed No	58c	19.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	127	62.2%79 W · 48 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?this page
Norway leading at halftime?Yes won
Senegal leading at halftime?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event