Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb774083a091a0df56b0550686040e0210819b6b2383fedf8b43564bc352f99fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shintaro Mochizukiof Shintaro Mochizuki, Braden Shick
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cdf…ec9ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 63c | 15,192$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,691.65 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 63c | 6,000$3,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.18 | 398 | 49.2%196 W · 202 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Braden Shick | 23c | 5,894$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.61 | 4,784 | 49.6%2,372 W · 2,412 L | +177.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Braden Shick | 38c | 5,608$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.17 | 636 | 51.7%329 W · 307 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Braden Shick | 8c | 3,507$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.48 | 1,564 | 24%376 W · 1,188 L | -43.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 77c | 3,151$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.92 | 6,678 | 50.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L | +265.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Braden Shick | 36c | 2,607$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.27 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Braden Shick | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 3,359 | 48.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L | -49.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 77c | 1,893$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.5 | 764 | 55%420 W · 344 L | +48.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 79c | 1,835$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.32 | 4,376 | 52.3%2,290 W · 2,086 L | +67.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Braden Shick | 38c | 1,637$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.68 | 374 | 35.3%132 W · 242 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Braden Shick | 17c | 1,358$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 9,161 | 36.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L | -202.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Braden Shick | 34c | 1,344$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.74 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…3facbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 72c | 1,242$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.99 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Braden Shick | 39c | 1,167$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.33 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Braden Shick | 38c | 1,088$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.05 | 2,548 | 38.5%982 W · 1,566 L | +96.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 75c | 879.34$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 3,195 | 57.3%1,830 W · 1,365 L | +178.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Braden Shick | 37c | 674$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 2,223 | 36.9%821 W · 1,402 L | +40.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Braden Shick | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 79c | 532.87$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 1,789 | 46.3%828 W · 961 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Braden Shick | 41c | 426.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 936 | 53.4%500 W · 436 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Braden Shick | 16c | 426.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 617 | 42%259 W · 358 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Braden Shick | 28c | 361.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 2,859 | 47.1%1,348 W · 1,511 L | +37.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Braden Shick | 38c | 319$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 62c | 308.27$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 609 | 46%280 W · 329 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 63c | 270$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1,073 | 57.6%618 W · 455 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Braden Shick | 33c | 262.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Braden Shick | 39c | 245$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 1,588 | 42.3%672 W · 916 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Braden Shick | 37c | 242.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Braden Shick | 37c | 227.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 3,749 | 42.5%1,594 W · 2,155 L | -44.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Braden Shick | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 150 | 44%66 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Braden Shick | 35c | 196.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | +43.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 71c | 185$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 2,347 | 52.1%1,223 W · 1,124 L | +86.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 77c | 174$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 5,455 | 56.4%3,074 W · 2,381 L | +234.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Braden Shick | 37c | 143$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 748 | 38.8%290 W · 458 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Braden Shick | 40c | 138.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 250 | 42%105 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d827backed Braden Shick | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Braden Shick | 41c | 117.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 78c | 112.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 210 | 24.8%52 W · 158 L | -20.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Braden Shick | 22c | 104.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 408 | 51.7%211 W · 197 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 57c | 101.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 982 | 55.4%544 W · 438 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Braden Shick | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Braden Shick | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,922 | 44%846 W · 1,076 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Braden Shick | 29c | 97.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 493 | 52.5%259 W · 234 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Braden Shick | 28c | 92.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 72c | 85.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 4,277 | 45%1,925 W · 2,352 L | +21.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 59c | 84.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 4,626 | 67.8%3,135 W · 1,491 L | +310.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Braden Shick | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4,041 | 45.7%1,848 W · 2,193 L | -28.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Braden Shick | 39c | 79.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 792 | 48.5%384 W · 408 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Braden Shick | 37c | 77.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,991 | 52.9%1,053 W · 938 L | +31.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 62c | 69.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 80c | 67.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,881 | 49.5%1,427 W · 1,454 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Braden Shick | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 462 | 52.8%244 W · 218 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac08…3f5fbacked Braden Shick | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Braden Shick | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 283 | 52.7%149 W · 134 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Braden Shick | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,352 | 28.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…9addbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 407 | 63.9%260 W · 147 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 57c | 46.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Braden Shick | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Braden Shick | 39c | 43.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 286 | 53.8%154 W · 132 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Braden Shick | 32c | 42.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 594 | 40.7%242 W · 352 L | -24.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Braden Shick | 39c | 38.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 888 | 58%515 W · 373 L | +16.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 80c | 36.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,101 | 54.2%1,139 W · 962 L | +65.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 73c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 439 | 64.7%284 W · 155 L | +24.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b6…9b2cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…f379backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 382 | 53.7%205 W · 177 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Braden Shick | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…ecefbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 62c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 318 | 68.9%219 W · 99 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 77c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 6,867 | 48.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L | +61.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Braden Shick | 38c | 26.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 227 | 57.7%131 W · 96 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 61c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 379 | 59.9%227 W · 152 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…77e9backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 68c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 157 | 96.8%152 W · 5 L | +40.3wins | +0.26per pick | 71cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 807 | 62.2%502 W · 305 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.