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Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Braden Shick

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shintaro Mochizukiof Shintaro Mochizuki, Braden Shick
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0cdf…ec9ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki63c15,192$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,691.6518458.2%107 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Shintaro Mochizuki63c6,000$3,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.1839849.2%196 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Braden Shick23c5,894$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.614,78449.6%2,372 W · 2,412 L+177.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Braden Shick38c5,608$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.1763651.7%329 W · 307 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Braden Shick8c3,507$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.481,56424%376 W · 1,188 L-43.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki77c3,151$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.926,67850.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L+265.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Braden Shick36c2,607$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.2711,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Braden Shick38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7603,35948.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L-49.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Shintaro Mochizuki77c1,893$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.576455%420 W · 344 L+48.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki79c1,835$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.324,37652.3%2,290 W · 2,086 L+67.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Braden Shick38c1,637$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.6837435.3%132 W · 242 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Braden Shick17c1,358$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.149,16136.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L-202.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Braden Shick34c1,344$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7421149.8%105 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3622…3facbacked Shintaro Mochizuki72c1,242$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.999566.3%63 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Braden Shick39c1,167$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3369644.5%310 W · 386 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Braden Shick38c1,088$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.052,54838.5%982 W · 1,566 L+96.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Shintaro Mochizuki75c879.34$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.143,19557.3%1,830 W · 1,365 L+178.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Braden Shick37c674$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.382,22336.9%821 W · 1,402 L+40.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Braden Shick37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2227,12939.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L-14.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki79c532.87$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.441,78946.3%828 W · 961 L-6.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Braden Shick41c426.83$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17593653.4%500 W · 436 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked Braden Shick16c426.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1861742%259 W · 358 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Braden Shick28c361.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.222,85947.1%1,348 W · 1,511 L+37.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Braden Shick38c319$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.177,20149.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L+114.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c308.27$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2860946%280 W · 329 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki63c270$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.91,07357.6%618 W · 455 L+4.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Braden Shick33c262.87$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.68,83442.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L-169.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Braden Shick39c245$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.51,58842.3%672 W · 916 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Braden Shick37c242.34$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.49845.9%45 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Braden Shick37c227.39$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.143,74942.5%1,594 W · 2,155 L-44.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Braden Shick38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7615044%66 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Braden Shick35c196.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.31,05648.3%510 W · 546 L+43.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Shintaro Mochizuki71c185$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.652,34752.1%1,223 W · 1,124 L+86.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Shintaro Mochizuki77c174$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.025,45556.4%3,074 W · 2,381 L+234.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Braden Shick37c143$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9174838.8%290 W · 458 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Braden Shick40c138.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7825042%105 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b49…d827backed Braden Shick30c135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.52955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Braden Shick41c117.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1218052.2%94 W · 86 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Shintaro Mochizuki78c112.13$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3621024.8%52 W · 158 L-20.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x70bb…10d3backed Braden Shick22c104.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7240851.7%211 W · 197 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Shintaro Mochizuki57c101.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8698255.4%544 W · 438 L+3.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Braden Shick29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299,40644.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L-245.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Braden Shick25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,92244%846 W · 1,076 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Braden Shick29c97.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1749352.5%259 W · 234 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Braden Shick28c92.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2637138.8%144 W · 227 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki72c85.17$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.784,27745%1,925 W · 2,352 L+21.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Shintaro Mochizuki59c84.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.74,62667.8%3,135 W · 1,491 L+310.5wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Braden Shick40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324,04145.7%1,848 W · 2,193 L-28.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Braden Shick39c79.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9179248.5%384 W · 408 L+1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Braden Shick37c77.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.021,99152.9%1,053 W · 938 L+31.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8102…c618backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c69.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5714260.6%86 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Shintaro Mochizuki80c67.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.552,88149.5%1,427 W · 1,454 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Braden Shick43c65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9546252.8%244 W · 218 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac08…3f5fbacked Braden Shick40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Braden Shick40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228352.7%149 W · 134 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Braden Shick37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,35228.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L-21.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Shintaro Mochizuki58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7240763.9%260 W · 147 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed Shintaro Mochizuki57c46.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.075955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x360a…1098backed Braden Shick37c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.655858.6%34 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Braden Shick39c43.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0528653.8%154 W · 132 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Braden Shick32c42.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3259440.7%242 W · 352 L-24.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Braden Shick39c38.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1888858%515 W · 373 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Shintaro Mochizuki80c36.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.572,10154.2%1,139 W · 962 L+65.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked Shintaro Mochizuki73c34.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Shintaro Mochizuki59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.943964.7%284 W · 155 L+24.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b6…9b2cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki62c32.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2516655.4%92 W · 74 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d24…f379backed Shintaro Mochizuki67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2338253.7%205 W · 177 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x657c…66a3backed Braden Shick37c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4714448.6%70 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4196…ecefbacked Shintaro Mochizuki69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.37353.4%39 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki62c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3931868.9%219 W · 99 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Shintaro Mochizuki77c28.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.636,86748.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L+61.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Braden Shick38c26.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.222757.7%131 W · 96 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…da40backed Shintaro Mochizuki61c24.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5737959.9%227 W · 152 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…77e9backed Shintaro Mochizuki68c21.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.89771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb207…c751backed Shintaro Mochizuki75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515796.8%152 W · 5 L+40.3wins+0.26per pick71cpaid+34.6%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Shintaro Mochizuki59c17.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2280762.2%502 W · 305 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki79c13.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9225448.4%123 W · 131 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.