Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83cbc2c10dbc9303133fd124fa79cd9cf1857080903914663d76c85b7f15035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Liquid | 23c | 22,390$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,149.72 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Falcons | 69c | 11,017$7,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,374.77 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons | 68c | 6,782$4,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.78 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid | 32c | 6,596$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.56 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons | 77c | 5,777$4,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.71 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…63c8backed Team Liquid | 50c | 5,445$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Team Falcons | 75c | 4,763$3,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.68 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Team Liquid | 25c | 4,734$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons | 77c | 2,962$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.25 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Team Falcons | 59c | 2,555$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.42 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b33…c931backed Team Liquid | 41c | 2,008$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked Team Liquid | 12c | 1,990$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Liquid | 40c | 1,663$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.75 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5b…1480backed Team Falcons | 72c | 1,393$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Team Falcons | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Liquid | 25c | 1,279$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.26 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…536bbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 1,257$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 53c | 1,115$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.15 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…b4a0backed Team Falcons | 55c | 901.43$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…7920backed Team Falcons | 75c | 865$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Team Liquid | 49c | 853.77$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.52 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…4895backed Team Falcons | 72c | 829.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Team Liquid | 25c | 770.6$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 744.68$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 676.56$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 569.17$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 459.89$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Team Liquid | 20c | 435$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…7b0cbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 404.6$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63f…8032backed Team Falcons | 77c | 388.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Liquid | 27c | 372.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Falcons | 46c | 310.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.9 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Team Falcons | 51c | 304.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 295$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Team Falcons | 48c | 290.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 31c | 269$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1b…cd39backed Team Falcons | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed Team Falcons | 78c | 255.13$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…eba7backed Team Falcons | 77c | 253.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid | 24c | 249.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 220.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Team Falcons | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Team Liquid | 50c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…7d24backed Team Liquid | 42c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Team Liquid | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Team Falcons | 77c | 195.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…b150backed Team Falcons | 77c | 194.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid | 41c | 189.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Liquid | 40c | 181$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…470fbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 180.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…e80bbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Liquid | 32c | 155.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed Team Falcons | 59c | 150.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…ebb8backed Team Falcons | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Liquid | 26c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…69c9backed Team Falcons | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…b283backed Team Falcons | 71c | 123.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d99…3d7dbacked Team Liquid | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed Team Falcons | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Team Liquid | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…6fe3backed Team Falcons | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Team Liquid | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Team Liquid | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Team Falcons | 60c | 61.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9738…4401backed Team Falcons | 76c | 59.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Team Liquid | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Team Falcons | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Team Falcons | 66c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee06…3054backed Team Falcons | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.9wins | -0.42per pick | 71cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Team Falcons | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed Team Falcons | 77c | 28.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…8532backed Team Falcons | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.