Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8646ed32a88e3589a21638216cc88a37d9fa90ae94c5c454d4dfbbd4107d06f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 398.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 346.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 259$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 237.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 234.38$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 78c | 230.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.34 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 229.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 226.14$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 196$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 180.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 156.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 156.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 154.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 122.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 65c | 119.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 113.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 110.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 20c | 101.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 93.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 87.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 54c | 83.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 82.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 81.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 76.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 69.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 29c | 67.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 29c | 66.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 20c | 53.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 29c | 48.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 47.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 38.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 37.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 34.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 34.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 71c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 32.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 27.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 27.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 26.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 25.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 24.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 67c | 24.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 18.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…f076backed No | 71c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 75c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.