Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8ecddc88a9919995e71e6866e7d1d5dfdcd79514fc91252049e0f79c406555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 49c | 4,843$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.06 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 646.95$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 483.71$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 429.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 367.41$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 336.93$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 299.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 278$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 276.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 261.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 219.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 212.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 44c | 181.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 52c | 175.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 175.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 173$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 168.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 161.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 51c | 158$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 156.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 141.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 119.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 117.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 112.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 103.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 89.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 60c | 83.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 69.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed No | 38c | 65.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 63.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 75c | 63.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 62.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 40c | 57.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 77c | 56.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 56.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 54.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 54.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 51c | 53.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 49.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 50c | 49.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 43c | 49.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 50c | 43.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 44c | 41.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 40.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 67c | 40.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 38.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 36.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 35.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 58c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 32.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 30.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 42c | 30.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 29.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 41c | 27.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 73c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 54c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 50c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b4c2backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 55c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.