Asian League · resolved market
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb97ea81ac4b30554d677a1ee34a3a898349674c00b44b77fc0207f2d9752e031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 13c | 20,005$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.53 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 1,907$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.26 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 78c | 1,509$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 31c | 1,081$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Over | 62c | 999.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 74c | 803.64$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.86 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…df5fbacked Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 22c | 477.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…5297backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 20c | 312.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.05 | 395 | 49.9%197 W · 198 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Over | 77c | 216.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 23c | 179.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 77c | 178.71$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 156 | 71.8%112 W · 44 L | +33.6wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 161.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 109.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 273 | 38.8%106 W · 167 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Over | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Under | 24c | 100.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Under | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 42c | 88.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…37e0backed Under | 80c | 87.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 23c | 79.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 79c | 75.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 20c | 69.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…f753backed Over | 80c | 56.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 74c | 51.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…9be0backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 77c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 62c | 36.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 54c | 35.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 77c | 21.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 321 | 54.2%174 W · 147 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 67c | 16.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 562 | 45.4%255 W · 307 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)Yokohama F·Marinos won
- Spread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: Yokohama F·Marinos O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.