Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9ba5a1aab7799113572597370d54d3493e7e51448a9f90942e690f36f8c3587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 39c | 2,888$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 7c | 1,458$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 1,431$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4f…09b9backed Yes | 36c | 1,329$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 1,194$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 1c | 1,098$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,086$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.43 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 30c | 966.4$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.66 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 848.51$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 803.23$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 800$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 18c | 797.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 784.38$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 747$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 20c | 699.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 22c | 699.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 28c | 678.24$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 659.86$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 606.62$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 603.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…b46abacked No | 66c | 599.96$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 35c | 575.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 27c | 570.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 567.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 549$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 23c | 507.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 486.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 442.97$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 19c | 418.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 405$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 27c | 399.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 370.85$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 32c | 359.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 42c | 350$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 38c | 348.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 34c | 339.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 339.03$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…fce2backed Yes | 38c | 335.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 327.2$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 313.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 304.27$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 20c | 299.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 295.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 34c | 287.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 15c | 279.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 70c | 269.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 19c | 266.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 263.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 50c | 244.47$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 28c | 239.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 43c | 232.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 232.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…532cbacked Yes | 35c | 228.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 225.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 24c | 211.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 16c | 208.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 22c | 203.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 201.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…4140backed Yes | 8c | 199.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 196.54$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 53c | 195.81$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 189.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 169.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 30c | 167.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 156.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 151.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 149.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 144.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…c7eabacked No | 65c | 144.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 33c | 143.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…a72fbacked Yes | 21c | 141$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 37c | 135.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 134.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 31c | 126.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 50c | 125.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 124.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 31c | 122.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 16c | 121.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5597backed Yes | 32c | 120.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 48c | 117.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 77c | 112.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 21c | 111.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 59c | 110.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed No | 74c | 110.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 35c | 107.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 103.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 100.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed No | 71c | 97.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 30c | 91.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.