Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabcc3cda4bd0a1bbf74a29adda3dfa1014701d391fe87610b73f72ac4f934c7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 28c | 5,829$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,220.5 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 2,722$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,138$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.48 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 1,996$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,512$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,310$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 1,048$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.93 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 999.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.21 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 51c | 995.41$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.14 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 943.5$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 13c | 900$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 895.47$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4f…09b9backed Yes | 59c | 860.39$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 798.74$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 798$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 781.99$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 21c | 704.23$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.23 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 20c | 600.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.21 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 11c | 600$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 586.01$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 23c | 535.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.46 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 519.61$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 473.19$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 10c | 456.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 34c | 417.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.78 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 57c | 392.55$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 384.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 46c | 377.67$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 364.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 362.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 23c | 349.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.55 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 339$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.59 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 333.97$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…fb2bbacked Yes | 15c | 328.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 16c | 324.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 13c | 322.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 308.61$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 21c | 303.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 301.39$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.49 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 10c | 298.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 297.9$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 295.05$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 70c | 275.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 275.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 235$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 235$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 211.17$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 11c | 210.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 202.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.39 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 196.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 196.53$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 195.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 190.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 183.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.37 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 12c | 180.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…532cbacked Yes | 20c | 178.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 39c | 159.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 75c | 158$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 19c | 147.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 9c | 141.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 140$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 79c | 127.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 79c | 127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 124.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 121.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 120.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 119.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 21c | 116.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 56c | 115.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 23c | 115$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 11c | 112.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 74c | 111$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 12c | 105.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 104.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 22c | 104.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 101.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 13c | 98.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 76c | 91.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…37f4backed Yes | 36c | 83.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 59c | 79.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 76.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…6f33backed No | 80c | 75.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 71.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 61c | 69.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 16c | 68.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 66.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fe…3a28backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 44c | 58.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 71c | 55.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…b85cbacked No | 66c | 55.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.