Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a15b9db7aa08ff03f4c15471c8f6c404293c69b9d466b86d26042b24cbfb279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 42c | 2,566$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.88 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 68c | 2,006$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.67 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 9c | 1,965$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.34 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 14c | 1,771$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.38 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 1,625$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 1,331$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 1,184$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 16c | 1,180$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 1,061$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 929.91$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 819.47$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.09 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 726.03$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.39 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 722.11$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 37c | 700.38$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 75c | 680.92$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.57 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 657.63$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 42c | 639.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 626.14$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.31 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 40c | 547.86$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 29c | 542.68$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.95 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 518.54$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 54c | 493.75$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.52 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 53c | 454.18$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 61c | 444.94$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.27 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 442.73$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 5c | 427.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.07 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 11c | 417.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.75 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 70c | 385.13$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.89 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 384.67$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 360.88$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 38c | 350$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 332.72$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 320.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 311.48$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 310$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 309.89$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.07 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…5d12backed Yes | 77c | 303.91$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 298.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 288.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 40c | 279.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 44c | 278.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 36c | 277.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 57c | 273.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 271$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 37c | 267.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 263.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 262.55$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 77c | 252.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 246$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5597backed Yes | 26c | 237.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 230.87$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 225.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 214.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 78c | 199.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 196.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 191$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…cc0abacked No | 10c | 176.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 40c | 172.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 166.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 162.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 147$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 144.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 144.22$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 135.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 39c | 132.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 130$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 48c | 129.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 32c | 126.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 62c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 14c | 123.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 75c | 121.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…fb2bbacked Yes | 41c | 121.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 40c | 120.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 35c | 118.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 43c | 116.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 106$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 63c | 91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 88.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 37c | 87.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 83.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 14c | 82.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 62c | 81.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 80.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 47c | 80.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 58c | 80.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 39c | 78.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 49c | 77.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 73c | 72.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 57c | 70.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 69.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 68.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.