TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Wolves Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd995…2b51backed Wolves Esports15c17,732$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.482924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Bilibili Gaming66c10,007$6,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,441.0528955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Wolves Esports34c5,654$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.7515431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Bilibili Gaming65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9919860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming76c2,942$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.5493049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Wolves Esports26c2,292$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.832245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Wolves Esports20c2,001$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.574438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Wolves Esports34c1,950$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.9841734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Wolves Esports34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1602…fbb0backed Wolves Esports36c1,388$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Wolves Esports15c1,358$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7215147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4f…6d4bbacked Bilibili Gaming75c1,336$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.21875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Wolves Esports25c1,294$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.441,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Wolves Esports35c1,285$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.758144.4%36 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Bilibili Gaming75c1,234$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.4110346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Bilibili Gaming66c1,212$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.1225660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Wolves Esports36c1,104$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.2529733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d1…6516backed Wolves Esports33c1,000$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3291546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Bilibili Gaming64c844.75$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.241,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Bilibili Gaming78c836.47$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1840944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Bilibili Gaming58c828.99$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.5719240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Wolves Esports42c828.67$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.8519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Wolves Esports35c806.01$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1146347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Bilibili Gaming70c766.19$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7955348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Wolves Esports23c763.9$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.531080%8 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+65.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Wolves Esports41c736.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Bilibili Gaming75c736$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1847540%30 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Bilibili Gaming73c733.01$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3952050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Bilibili Gaming79c636.02$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.0411747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Bilibili Gaming67c635.06$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2517853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Wolves Esports34c613.92$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5246326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked Wolves Esports29c608.66$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.091741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed Wolves Esports28c550$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid0%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1850…8903backed Bilibili Gaming73c546.11$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.11580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wolves Esports15c509$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4320138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Bilibili Gaming65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17514955.7%83 W · 66 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Wolves Esports34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17063955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Wolves Esports34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17036648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Bilibili Gaming73c463.11$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7179650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Wolves Esports17c462.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7736145.7%165 W · 196 L+22.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed Wolves Esports42c457.98$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Wolves Esports34c445.45$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.744342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Bilibili Gaming71c418.13$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1257151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed Wolves Esports35c382.95$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.033756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Bilibili Gaming72c370.4$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.889551.6%49 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Wolves Esports26c369$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Bilibili Gaming59c350$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.56347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed Wolves Esports15c340$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Bilibili Gaming64c300$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.516033.8%54 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wolves Esports20c296.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bilibili Gaming66c295.26$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3925556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc815…ecfabacked Wolves Esports34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016452.4%86 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Wolves Esports36c276$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.365352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed Bilibili Gaming77c261.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.38852.3%46 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Wolves Esports37c259.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7915038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Bilibili Gaming64c249.98$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4921457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0f…36f6backed Wolves Esports35c234.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.121050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Bilibili Gaming74c227.42$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9913662.5%85 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Wolves Esports34c226.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0763447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Wolves Esports9c224.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4823644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ede…59e6backed Wolves Esports18c217.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Bilibili Gaming66c212.12$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Wolves Esports35c211.32$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9625347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Bilibili Gaming74c205.02$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.781,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Bilibili Gaming59c204.2$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.223847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Wolves Esports35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Wolves Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Wolves Esports33c197.46$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1684838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c23…418bbacked Wolves Esports46c191.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.18650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Bilibili Gaming67c191.14$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0622344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Bilibili Gaming55c182.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1825843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Wolves Esports15c181.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7321136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Bilibili Gaming58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…7db1backed Wolves Esports29c164.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b8…abf5backed Bilibili Gaming75c157.93$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Wolves Esports7c156.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2977744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked Bilibili Gaming69c151$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.812445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Bilibili Gaming73c146.82$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0513225%33 W · 99 L-18.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Bilibili Gaming78c144$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Bilibili Gaming70c143.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2619648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Wolves Esports33c140.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3319655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Wolves Esports35c140.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.072737%10 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Bilibili Gaming75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.336762.7%42 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Bilibili Gaming53c126.11$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2716950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Wolves Esports27c125.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3949255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4916…f78fbacked Wolves Esports24c123.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Wolves Esports13c121.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6826932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4c6…825bbacked Wolves Esports33c120.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Wolves Esports34c120$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.811844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce61…a87fbacked Wolves Esports17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85158.8%30 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Bilibili Gaming61c113.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.191637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x395c…9a66backed Bilibili Gaming76c111.45$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Wolves Esports14c110.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7374642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91a5…4ec9backed Bilibili Gaming70c103.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7415…b585backed Wolves Esports29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303129%9 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Bilibili Gaming66c101.56$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1251749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af8…9f99backed Bilibili Gaming56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441921.1%4 W · 15 L-7.3wins-0.38per pick59cpaid-69.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed Wolves Esports39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3913243.2%57 W · 75 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bilibili Gaming75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Wolves Esports35c98.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.610555.2%58 W · 47 L+16.2wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+39.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.