TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pirates vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Pirates, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$481,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$497,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 499 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles42c201,023$84,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,644.6238043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Pirates58c48,000$27,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,84011759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Pirates55c42,102$23,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,252.221,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823c…0425backed Pirates60c33,273$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,000.123865.8%25 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pirates62c32,046$19,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,931.551,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Pirates58c30,222$17,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,5291,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pirates58c30,000$17,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,40055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Orioles38c26,347$10,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,236.6278445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pirates60c23,907$14,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,285.871,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Pirates58c20,688$11,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,998.8117156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles42c18,558$7,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,763.3938047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Pirates58c15,026$8,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,715.0835952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Pirates59c14,846$8,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,830.2721847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Pirates58c11,700$6,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,78613065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Pirates58c10,086$5,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,822.8225453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles44c7,856$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,380.5325551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x296a…125fbacked Orioles41c7,319$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,318.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles46c7,041$3,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,835.0260249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…1390backed Pirates58c6,740$3,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,909.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Orioles44c6,030$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.969135.2%32 W · 59 L-12.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Orioles41c6,024$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,554.149666.7%64 W · 32 L+16.4wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates58c4,841$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.562,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles39c4,047$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.319,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Pirates58c3,218$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.12862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Pirates28c3,018$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.74531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Orioles43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Pirates53c2,798$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.7831248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Pirates61c2,584$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.8220747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pirates67c2,549$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.526,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Pirates64c2,512$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.685352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles40c2,191$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.152,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Pirates70c2,134$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Orioles41c2,124$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.1695850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Pirates57c2,017$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.5734245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Pirates58c2,009$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.8838751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Orioles42c1,954$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.0524253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pirates45c1,863$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Orioles38c1,501$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.288,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Orioles42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87016349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Orioles59c1,418$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.129759.8%58 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Orioles40c1,300$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7759651%49 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pirates58c1,086$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.8873352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Pirates64c1,062$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.7526650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Pirates57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5706845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Pirates57c999.98$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9932042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles43c930$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.11,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked Orioles40c850$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.513052.3%68 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Pirates59c848.56$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50031254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Orioles42c790$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.230151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Pirates58c700$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40698149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db7…d372backed Pirates58c690.14$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.2813149.6%65 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x486e…c403backed Pirates66c674.92$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.453554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles38c673.43$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.474,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Pirates45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003650%18 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Pirates59c644.07$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a1…24f8backed Pirates56c642.72$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.852536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Pirates64c628.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8614055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Pirates64c628.02$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8680955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Pirates72c570$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.440352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Pirates71c566$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.8651953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Pirates58c536.38$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.110041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Orioles42c506.63$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.8551347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Orioles30c503.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.621,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Pirates57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28513247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Orioles40c500$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29810646.2%49 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Orioles42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2905658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2951,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Orioles61c495.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.174266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Orioles42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Orioles42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1926055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58f6…c600backed Orioles43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.121050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Orioles43c450.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.981,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c2…0f74backed Orioles50c402.17$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.172751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Orioles42c396.62$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.046150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Orioles30c386.86$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7657545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Pirates59c380.76$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6514150.4%71 W · 70 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x90b6…ba49backed Pirates30c369.48$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109158.2%53 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Pirates58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pirates44c330$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Pirates57c312.19$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Orioles41c310.05$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.936949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Orioles37c302.7$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.716340.5%66 W · 97 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Orioles41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17733140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles42c299.97$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.983,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…d4f3backed Pirates58c295.12$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Pirates49c287.14$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1213138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles41c274.02$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.671,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pirates58c267.22$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9943949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Pirates58c257.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Orioles42c254$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.3263152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Orioles42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.17443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Orioles42c238$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0424346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9da7…8d0fbacked Pirates58c236.82$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e8…e4e6backed Orioles43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.562839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e4e…62d5backed Orioles43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pirates58c226.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6473149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles43c220.93$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9399951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b2…4d4bbacked Orioles53c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Orioles42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1165251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.