Token Launches · resolved market
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb09fb2b6723857a05c8205a62d8f197df8548ed5763d8326542740961af7342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 52c | 1,204$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.97 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 25c | 239.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 176.12$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 52c | 162$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +104%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 142$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed No | 61c | 134.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 71c | 131.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 124.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a9…728ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…0451backed Yes | 31c | 95.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 62c | 84.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 84.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked Yes | 51c | 76.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 68.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2081…65e3backed No | 66c | 64.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 47.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 72c | 31.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…4652backed No | 72c | 25.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 76c | 25.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…8853backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…aeaebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…559abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.