TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes66c31,525$20,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,720.232070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No38c12,844$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.022,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No43c11,725$5,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,045.3848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked No73c4,972$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,629.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No72c3,600$2,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5935440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes28c3,430$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,471.091,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8401…0fa1backed Yes30c3,184$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8868…ec09backed No74c3,184$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes42c2,644$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.9364043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes26c2,534$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.3523046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes33c2,364$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.653,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No72c1,672$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.6969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes27c1,600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1687639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes27c1,062$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.5114652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No72c1,061$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.15168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked No46c1,052$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Yes28c954.2$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.031741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No41c947.39$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.897750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked No73c915.66$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.431492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick68cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No37c883.55$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.7811356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed No73c813.24$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.273941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes29c792.33$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.561855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2adc…0afabacked Yes65c691.6$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No73c683.03$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.9217749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No36c570.4$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5939857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed No46c549.99$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No27c544.93$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.132748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d81…06edbacked Yes54c540.22$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes55c488.95$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Yes27c467.69$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3311148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No71c462.26$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.3729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes27c455.23$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.3256951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…c150backed Yes64c448.31$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes28c426.39$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.456842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes27c425$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2242046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Yes28c410.02$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.3218644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yes28c409.36$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.3320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf277…9a5fbacked No73c404.3$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.141643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc418…5e1ebacked No49c397.42$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes52c382.1$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes76c370.85$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Yes77c362.38$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Yes54c360.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.672365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Yes27c354.15$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.531631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes27c349.16$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.811,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Yes28c341.71$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x867b…9fbabacked Yes28c338.41$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.721546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed No37c300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3520645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes67c294.06$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.043873.7%28 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Yes72c291.83$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.711687.5%14 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+36.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes30c287.4$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.1811252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed No71c276.79$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.524062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked No73c269.53$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7613066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked No74c266.05$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.881553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd710…cf6fbacked Yes67c263.15$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed No6c249.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Yes79c249.23$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.72757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe09…7acebacked No48c247.06$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.591070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes30c243.05$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.141752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6006…13afbacked Yes26c242.58$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cb…126cbacked No47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.821266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fdd…a037backed No47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6592…b6d7backed Yes28c204.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+101.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b2…2c4abacked No73c202.15$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…4a6fbacked No47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked No48c199.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.915444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No73c188.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes28c183.33$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+147.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec18…89ebbacked No76c176.18$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes53c174.43$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed No28c174.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.784656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes28c170.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.024153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes28c170.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.021442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x935f…94b8backed No8c157.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f1…1054backed Yes65c150.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdce…f9e2backed No73c148.24$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked No32c148.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.46439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Yes28c146.28$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.321435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb4…71c3backed Yes69c142.45$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+97%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x859d…b336backed Yes65c138.57$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No41c137.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.879354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160c…fdccbacked Yes28c136.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No75c136.63$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3262452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes73c134.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.399856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x088a…9ee7backed Yes73c134.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019a…f457backed Yes26c126.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.441353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed No74c124.03$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.792259.1%13 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick75cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes27c118.41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4438646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed No74c112.1$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.682378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b8…81a9backed No47c110.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc4…3479backed No73c109.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.72875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes52c104.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7321450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384240.5%17 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf4c…d5dbbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e2…c751backed No45c99.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.995770.2%40 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Yes30c98.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…6b6ebacked No48c98.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.47875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ce6…e378backed Yes76c98.56$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes27c96.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.