TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked No62c4,566$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.12,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Yes34c3,078$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.7210943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes34c2,971$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.4664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No60c2,018$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.4448658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Yes40c2,011$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc899…e1fdbacked No77c1,681$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.534100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No79c1,473$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No65c1,382$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.671,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes23c1,312$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6711338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes36c1,212$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.177255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No75c1,124$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.965151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Yes17c992.21$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.946232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes54c987.5$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.153,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No65c902.29$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9428345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff0…fa1abacked Yes20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f70…ce77backed Yes20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes24c421.63$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1411447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a16…5f47backed Yes23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926055%33 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb294…a9f4backed Yes20c340$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes38c336.84$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1284030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No76c327.9$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.711354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4753…41adbacked Yes29c300$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed No64c286.55$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.583557.1%20 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed No77c261.85$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.23560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…8086backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1548…fe8ebacked No60c238.9$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.562250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes42c238.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes30c233.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9219458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No63c227.42$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.124257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes25c220$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b4…a52ebacked No37c216.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No66c210.55$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Yes30c200.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6038845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545358.5%31 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes27c186.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d61…2641backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No67c171.02$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5839857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Yes23c167.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd03d…107ebacked Yes20c161.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes22c154.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.374949%24 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe868…958abacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…9182backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…2920backed Yes20c142.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked No67c136.61$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.083467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes62c131.38$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04ed…5694backed Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No64c126.24$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.37455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No59c118.23$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0327554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x923c…6d03backed Yes13c102.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.335131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed No73c102$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.646264.5%40 W · 22 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes23c102$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb3…93e8backed Yes20c101.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea87…c5a0backed Yes28c94.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebcf…086abacked Yes22c90.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x166e…3303backed Yes18c89.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e1…9de8backed Yes40c87.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No69c84.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7514755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes63c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes23c74.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No69c74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.25064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c8f…da09backed No44c73.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.343164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed No75c67.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.023951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes67c66.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2814642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf435…a35abacked Yes24c63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No76c56.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f68…3e9cbacked Yes19c56.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed No60c51.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.926640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee9…98ebbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x836f…e56cbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc0…5b3bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…f275backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes30c47.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.314153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Yes25c47.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.749052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde51…f222backed Yes28c47.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked No66c42.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.765653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c3…2020backed Yes48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No78c39.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7110956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked No72c39.55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.111827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked No77c39.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.062871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked No78c38.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe045…afcdbacked Yes33c34.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1755…a572backed Yes62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610771%76 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.45457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked No71c29.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.366046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No36c28.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1328822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c19…55e8backed Yes57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.