TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,232,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,449,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,232,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91ee…c5b8backed Yes58c719,839$415,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415,011.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+74.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed No42c174,000$73,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,919.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No43c125,000$53,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,249.984042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No42c103,800$43,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,203.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No42c48,440$20,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,095.23154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes55c40,314$22,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,172.486358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No43c37,961$16,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,663.851,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed No42c37,712$15,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,826.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes56c26,042$14,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,523.016761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No44c25,480$11,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,343.694740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No42c24,388$10,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,145.033063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf344…9a04backed No42c23,901$10,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,862.691163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed No47c21,277$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4da7…7abdbacked No43c21,240$9,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,1084100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+118.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No43c17,550$7,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,003.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No48c15,203$7,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,905.733,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No55c14,887$8,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,673.5328345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed No42c14,286$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,285.714050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No45c12,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6004540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bba…49babacked Yes0c12,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed No43c10,800$4,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,118.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No44c10,781$4,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,009.5469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Yes23c9,641$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.333125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed No42c9,394$3,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,438.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+49.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No42c9,253$3,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,378.1827138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No44c8,150$3,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,563.973554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Yes56c8,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.992857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a4…5780backed No53c7,433$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa160…442bbacked No44c7,206$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked No42c7,040$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,083.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked No42c7,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0401050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed No26c6,941$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,165.719646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x536a…d21dbacked No43c6,726$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.82977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick38cpaid+117.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes56c6,377$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.127443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No45c6,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3005461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No61c4,675$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.817255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No44c4,468$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.236549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88bf…0933backed No27c3,445$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,524.32887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked No73c3,010$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.064153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No44c3,000$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.3614447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No44c2,988$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.161,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Yes56c2,951$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.472568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Yes57c2,803$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.786453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa2b…5dfebacked No44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No44c2,400$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3445843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No43c2,392$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.3955058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No45c2,370$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.236755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes63c2,349$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.4414315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No42c2,337$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.4617247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes57c2,333$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.9934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked No45c2,063$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.573461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No49c2,061$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.62,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.822882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No44c2,018$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.438646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes24c2,017$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.434436.4%16 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed Yes57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…5efabacked No45c1,851$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes54c1,752$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.6240744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf375…f105backed Yes58c1,722$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed No44c1,704$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.247254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No64c1,676$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.257750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Yes34c1,672$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No55c1,538$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.886543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8259854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes55c1,500$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.9516850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No43c1,431$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.1128755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No44c1,400$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7846744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No51c1,250$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.248141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No44c1,200$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6725944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No54c1,119$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.6615540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed No44c1,100$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.842050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed No42c1,088$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.029265.2%60 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked No43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5702630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes56c999.98$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8953…9b78backed No53c999.98$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.99560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No43c966.83$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.1629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes57c950$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.511338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No44c895$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.2256951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x378c…0f2dbacked Yes51c847.45$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed No44c833.33$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.699850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No44c820$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.215747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No44c800$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4482948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No43c796.64$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.0711354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No44c736$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.162853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No45c735.02$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.618851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed No44c716.09$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.3310244.1%45 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No45c700$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3858950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf693…995ebacked No26c700$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5203847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes45c699.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3157057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf3…05f6backed Yes58c681.05$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc255…c3d8backed Yes58c670.91$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No45c650$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.58949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.