TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes42c11,743$4,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,797.773,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No75c10,858$8,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,191.157255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bba…49babacked No0c10,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2002070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.961435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes28c4,254$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.922,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Yes49c3,798$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.931258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes17c3,353$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.825945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes31c3,299$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.128932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed No80c3,069$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.547443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No59c2,782$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.3628345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa2b…5dfebacked Yes20c2,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes20c2,495$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No17c2,389$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.091,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes20c2,329$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.9364043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes25c2,262$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.8214315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb7b…3051backed Yes49c1,994$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No80c1,583$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.687538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No79c1,554$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.41,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No80c1,539$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.3920845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes55c1,289$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.9822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes21c1,194$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.6911338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Yes39c1,159$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.326232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes19c1,100$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8914641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No73c1,081$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.697750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb553…457bbacked Yes24c1,042$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed No50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39f6…abe1backed Yes20c924.44$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.192867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No80c712.65$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7327138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes21c690.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.8815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed No54c600$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3214949%24 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No80c593.21$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.5720548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1378…681bbacked Yes27c581.48$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes55c571.66$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.8833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed No76c524.11$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.993268.8%22 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes21c500$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3955440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes28c499.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.996543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No79c459.98$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3928755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No80c449.45$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba3b…1a4abacked No3c447.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes39c417.85$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.1353140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes21c411.38$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+147.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes20c400$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32011354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae92…d367backed No79c399.99$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.99560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No78c382.77$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5638646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Yes20c347.8$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.242630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Yes27c333.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.526339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No52c330$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4314652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed No71c320.64$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.083557.1%20 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes27c296.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.7817930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No51c296.17$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.110946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes16c217.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6219458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No28c216$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3813139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed Yes48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed No79c203.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.152540%10 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Yes27c203.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.74134.1%14 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes17c196.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd9…4e22backed Yes49c183.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb888…ccfdbacked Yes19c182.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+110.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1663…2074backed Yes49c181.88$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f5…d680backed No59c179.74$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Yes51c177.86$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.153467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No79c161.3$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6242046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes48c160.27$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.343557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf887…db68backed Yes25c156.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+74.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes49c154.05$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.561866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked No9c150.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.596046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Yes35c144.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.497455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed Yes21c142.09$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.936640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Yes15c126.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+116.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b7d…9b6cbacked No79c126.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.64475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No80c125.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005440.7%22 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes20c125$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes48c118.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.755444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked No76c117.39$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.221850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No73c110.33$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9227554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No44c108.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5540744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c0a…77b5backed Yes48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed No78c102.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2416343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a4…6c04backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed No78c99.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7814642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d03…c3b6backed Yes48c97.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c7…1942backed Yes21c92.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.131735.3%6 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick17cpaid+90.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes20c87.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.068451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…833ebacked Yes50c84.34$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes17c79.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3910549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No80c75.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4538…7d5cbacked Yes49c75.51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+45%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed No78c68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0414942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes27c66.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.755341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed No52c66.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.893658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75de…98c0backed Yes47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes21c58.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4928822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes27c58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.346665.2%43 W · 23 L+12.5wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+49.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes50c57.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.564257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked No52c52.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.394461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.