South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc39224c1f745926b7a890953ef36ddf1fdb7b706b93a6c49456a0c4c0b6f6ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 7,790$5,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.77 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 31c | 6,966$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.3 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 6,939$4,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.69 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 31c | 3,511$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.01 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 2c | 2,005$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Yes | 26c | 1,955$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked No | 63c | 1,491$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.6 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 72c | 655.47$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.46 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Yes | 25c | 610$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 559.39$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…5280backed Yes | 34c | 529.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 522.23$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…a7dbbacked Yes | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 465.15$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 418.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…4307backed Yes | 25c | 399.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 75c | 368.14$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 41c | 341.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 31c | 311.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 25c | 299.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 30c | 289.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 30c | 287.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 31c | 245$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 29c | 244.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 186.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 66c | 169.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Yes | 32c | 157.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 29c | 147.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 68c | 144.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 66c | 124$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes | 33c | 123.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…2a78backed Yes | 15c | 119.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 22c | 112.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 77c | 106.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed Yes | 21c | 103.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…3ababacked Yes | 35c | 98.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked No | 78c | 97.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 79c | 95.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…dc9fbacked Yes | 30c | 88.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 78c | 85.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 70c | 74.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 72.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 76c | 71.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 75c | 69.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…977abacked Yes | 24c | 68.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Yes | 31c | 67.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 31c | 61.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 31c | 60.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 50.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 76c | 48.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 30c | 47.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed No | 77c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked No | 76c | 35.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…5966backed No | 78c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked No | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed No | 70c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…107abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 76c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-02?No won
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-08-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.