Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcc2523d3fa79997b657e41d2d0b53f6ad006ee7aa929327d154e8f0eaef2409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,965$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…1795backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 773.8$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 505.44$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 25c | 369.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 311.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 235.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 225.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 193.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 6c | 170.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 34c | 164.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 48c | 164$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 141.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 141.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 31c | 139$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 135.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 115.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 36c | 115.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 26c | 103.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 100.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 52c | 99.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 33c | 86.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 51c | 77.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 36c | 69.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 69.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 22c | 68.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 55.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…7abcbacked Yes | 29c | 54.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…6a96backed Yes | 25c | 49.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 70c | 42.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 40.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 73c | 40.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 37c | 39.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 36.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…1d57backed No | 73c | 36.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 55c | 34.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e6…6cbfbacked No | 73c | 32.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…56eebacked Yes | 34c | 31.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 65c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 69c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…4879backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 71c | 24.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed No | 80c | 13.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.