Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd2f1d73295afcbe7349a3cff42c84b3a8a225a856cbba4f4676c505b16ec0fb

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5efb…55a1backed Yes	75c	3,537$2,637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900.84	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No	13c	1,818$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	1c	1,443$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	166	16.9%28 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	16c	1,238$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.51	343	54.8%188 W · 155 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	31c	1,064$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.31	146	37%54 W · 92 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No	17c	896$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.32	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked No	11c	886.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	13c	759.09$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.79	65	23.1%15 W · 50 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	68c	492.63$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.21	185	30.3%56 W · 129 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes	79c	389$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.48	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No	8c	320.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	108	45.4%49 W · 59 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No	24c	292$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.69	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x51ca…046bbacked Yes	50c	230$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.95	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	64cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No	33c	215.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.72	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	528	50.8%268 W · 260 L	+20.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	34c	199.65$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.12	193	15.5%30 W · 163 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No	30c	189.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.18	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	17c	171.87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	316	35.1%111 W · 205 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No	37c	155$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.15	285	58.9%168 W · 117 L	+14.0wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	21c	150$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No	34c	149.67$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.95	92	54.3%50 W · 42 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58bb…a539backed No	32c	147.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.36	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-39%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes	74c	147.5$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.7	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	15c	142$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.44	311	52.4%163 W · 148 L	-12.4wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	55.3%199 W · 161 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No	29c	105$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	111	61.3%68 W · 43 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb2…a893backed Yes	68c	102.61$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.61	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed No	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	28c	87.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	274	38.3%105 W · 169 L	-32.3wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	36c	86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.99	990	17.2%170 W · 820 L	-148.8wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	44c	76$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	352	58%204 W · 148 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	33c	75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ff…d69fbacked No	36c	69.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	23c	67.84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	246	37.4%92 W · 154 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No	40c	66$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-5.4wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-66%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbf98…d0bfbacked No	15c	65.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…9cc5backed Yes	77c	58.29$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…ae28backed Yes	72c	56.11$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.74	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No	39c	54.72$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes	61c	52.59$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.72	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	24	25%6 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	65cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	68	47.1%32 W · 36 L	-6.9wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-5.1wins	-0.24per pick	62cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	37c	47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.23	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	29c	44.55$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.44	371	17.8%66 W · 305 L	-18.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	36c	42.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	37c	40.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…1e17backed Yes	63c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes	71c	20.08$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.86	68	50%34 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event