CS2 · resolved market
CS: Liquid vs HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd85382dc738dc882da1e9ce10c5869e64d57bf89849748efdd4157f7ce20aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof Liquid, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed HEROIC | 50c | 5,555$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.5 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Liquid | 50c | 4,266$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Liquid | 50c | 3,928$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed Liquid | 65c | 2,621$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.08 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked HEROIC | 43c | 2,555$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.79 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed HEROIC | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed HEROIC | 32c | 1,987$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.69 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid | 58c | 1,878$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.57 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Liquid | 50c | 1,876$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.78 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid | 50c | 1,461$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.91 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Liquid | 73c | 1,456$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.82 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Liquid | 50c | 1,226$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.93 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed HEROIC | 42c | 1,161$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.86 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked HEROIC | 38c | 1,117$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.21 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Liquid | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked HEROIC | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HEROIC | 46c | 817.67$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed HEROIC | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Liquid | 52c | 673.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.08 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HEROIC | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Liquid | 51c | 664.62$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.62 | 134 | 60.4%81 W · 53 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…a304backed HEROIC | 50c | 600.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Liquid | 61c | 551.11$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…1f18backed HEROIC | 37c | 539.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Liquid | 56c | 420$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed HEROIC | 38c | 411.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked HEROIC | 50c | 401.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.62 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed HEROIC | 51c | 398$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked HEROIC | 50c | 384$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Liquid | 48c | 346$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.92 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HEROIC | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed HEROIC | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HEROIC | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Liquid | 53c | 275.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 236 | 46.2%109 W · 127 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked HEROIC | 44c | 219$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Liquid | 73c | 215.33$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked HEROIC | 30c | 210.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Liquid | 56c | 210$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed HEROIC | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Liquid | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Liquid | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed HEROIC | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Liquid | 66c | 194.66$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Liquid | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked HEROIC | 50c | 181.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed HEROIC | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed HEROIC | 40c | 162$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked HEROIC | 52c | 151.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…0437backed Liquid | 76c | 149.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed HEROIC | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed HEROIC | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HEROIC | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed HEROIC | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Liquid | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 300 | 39.7%119 W · 181 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Liquid | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed HEROIC | 42c | 72.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Liquid | 51c | 64.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked HEROIC | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Liquid | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Liquid | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked HEROIC | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed HEROIC | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Liquid | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2a…4304backed Liquid | 40c | 37.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Liquid | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Liquid | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.