Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdbe7a5887a13f948dc3e563dfc6a4480bdc7050d6d0ff0f1c82f3a6fd1bf966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 1,613$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 21c | 1,241$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.09 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 981.46$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.53 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 528.46$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 482.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 473.26$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 344.72$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 312.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 21c | 260.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 37c | 235.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 232.79$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 21c | 224.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 222.57$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 208.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 201.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 198.56$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 179.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 59c | 176.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 175.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 173.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 173.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 172.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 171.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 147.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 23c | 145.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 126.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 57c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 120.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 119.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 113$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 111.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 43c | 107.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 51c | 105.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 103.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 66c | 90.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 63c | 89.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 22c | 87.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 87.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 48c | 85.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 85.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 54c | 85.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 84.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 35c | 84.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 83.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 59c | 83.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 82.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 79.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 79.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 34c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 73.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 42c | 71.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 48c | 69.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 20c | 68.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 58c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 37c | 65.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 64.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 17c | 62.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 23c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 58.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 57.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 56.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 66c | 51.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 50.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 64c | 47.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 37c | 47.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 49c | 45.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 47c | 44.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 41c | 44.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 39c | 44.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…780ebacked Yes | 61c | 43.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 37c | 41.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 39c | 38.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 55c | 36.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 57c | 36.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…c401backed Yes | 59c | 35.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…be97backed Yes | 59c | 33.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.