Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a9321cd10e668a5ebda639f9a28d032b948c0f2ff19c068eea8b25a52418d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 57c | 1,454$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.06 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 1,206$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.43 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,040$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 961.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.34 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 931.69$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 40c | 698.72$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 37c | 516.26$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 40c | 457.9$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 374.95$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 373.25$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 313.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 64c | 313.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 34c | 304.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 34c | 303.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.5 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 297.23$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 74c | 271.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 270.98$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 269.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 268.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 264.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 261.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 62c | 259.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 253.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 70c | 220$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 37c | 216.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 199.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 192$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 64c | 190$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 32c | 189.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 176.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 173.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 172.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 65c | 169.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 169$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 166.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 165.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 46c | 163.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 35c | 161.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 157.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 155.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 149$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 145.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 52c | 143$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 139.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 133.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 131.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 125.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 125$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 121.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 33c | 121.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 32c | 118.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 118.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 118.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 117.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 117.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 114$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 74c | 113.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 29c | 111.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 36c | 111.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 21c | 109.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 103.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 29c | 103$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 67c | 101.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 80c | 100.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…6ef7backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…5991backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 34c | 94.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 90.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 90.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 55c | 89.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 88.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 38c | 87.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 59c | 83.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 32c | 83.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 49c | 83.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 83.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 81.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 79.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 79.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 40c | 76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 19c | 73.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 70.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 17c | 69.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 45c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 66.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 63c | 65.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.